Phillip Futures Energy Daily Outlook - Bullish momentum formed from increased geopolitical tensions; we expect economic data to further support this momentum.
US Q3 GDP turned out strong, supporting markets after the weak Preliminary Manufacturing PMI; US Durable Goods Orders will be released at 9.30pm (Singapore Time): Out of the 3 major US economic data releasing this week, we have a tie between the bulls and the bears.
US crude oil and natural gas inventories scheduled for release tonight at 11.30pm and tomorrow morning at 1am respectively (Singapore Time): Both US crude oil and natural gas inventories will be released later.
Crude Oil
Prices continued its increase after geopolitical tensions heightened. If tensions continue to increase, we may see more increase. Apart from geopolitical tensions, we await the economic data aforementioned. For the US economic data, we would use the US Dollar Index as an indicator as to how oil prices are affected.
We would think that as long as US Dollar Index does not climb above 100, the bullish momentum should continue. In terms of inventories, we believe that it should decrease for the first time in weeks, and thus should also support higher prices.
This would mean that oil prices should have more upside today, especially if the events turn out as expected. We see a strong resistance for WTI and Brent Jan’16 at $43.49 and $46.49 and this should break in the most bullish scenario.
Natural Gas
Prices are slowly trending upwards again after the big drop from last week. If US natural gas inventories drops this week, we should be seeing prices maintain above current support of $2.228 for today. This level could be tested in anticipation of US natural gas inventory release, however, should not break especially if inventories turned out lower.
Source: Philip Futures Pte Ltd.
No comments:
Post a Comment